Who will be affected by the US-China trade war?

Today President Trump tweeted on the US-China trade war. The White House has announced that they will start the next round tariff (10%) on $200 billion import items from September 24. Possibly they may expand to all items. Further more, Trump administration plans to increase tariff to 25% from Jan 1, 2019. Let’s take a look which industries may get most affected.

2017 US Exports to China Top 9 Products

1. Aircraft, engines, equipment, and parts $16.2 (12.5%)
2. Soybeans $12.3 (9.4%)
3. Passenger cars, new and used $10.2 (7.9%)
4. Semiconductors $6.1 (4.7%)
5. Industrial machines, other $5.4 (4.2%)
6. Crude oil $4.4 (3.4%)
7. Plastic materials $4.0 (3.1%)
8. Medicinal equipment $3.5 (2.7%)
9. Pulpwood and wood pulp $3.4 (2.6%)
.
Exports Total $129.9 (100%)
units: billion
source: US Census Bureau

2017 US Imports from China Top 9 Products

1. Cell phones and other household goods  $70.4 (13.9%)
2. Computers $45.5 (9.0%)
3. Telecommunications equipment $33.5 (6.6%)
4. Computer accessories $31.6 (6.3%)
5. Toys, games, and sporting goods $26.8 (5.3%)
6. Apparel, textiles, nonwool or cotton $24.1 (4.8%)
7. Furniture, household goods, etc. $20.7 (4.1%)
8. Other parts and accessories of vehicles $14.4 (2.9%)
9. Household appliances $14.4 (2.8%)
.
Imports Total $505.5 (100%)
units: billion
source: U.S. Census Bureau

Base on above stats, aircraft and soybean industries will be affected most for U.S. Top 9 items represent 50% of U.S. exports. Cell phones computers, telecom equipment industries will be affected for China. Top 9 items represent 56% of U.S. imports. However cell phones includes Apple’s iPhone. For others such as Toys, Apparel, Furniture industries, we expect those items could quickly be shifted to other Asian countries for manufacturing due to lower tariff and labor cost. Those items may not affect to U.S. consumer price for a long run.

Full Tariff List from Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Trump Tracker: https://hcw68.app.goo.gl/p6u5

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